Australian Online Shopping & Forecasting (b)

Previously, I discussed the future trends of Australian marketing online shopping. In this blog, I would like to keep the discussion about the post condition of trends and future scenerio.

Enhancements in technology guard financial and personal risks
Technology is the key to push online shopping keep developing. Currently, online shopping security and privacy always become the keep issue that keep traditional customer away from online shopping, because of low confiderence about the information privacy. Internet shopping websites owner has the responsibility to guaranty their clients informatill will not be released unauthority users to build strong consumers confiderence regarding to financial and personal information. (Weickhardt 2011)

Online shopping behaviour increases
Based on Productivity Commission Report 2011, Australian domestic online shopping accounts contributed 3 to 7 per cent of Australian retail sales. Overseas online shopping take 2 percent of total Australia retail sales. Although Australia online shopping only take very limited market share at this moment, the growth rate is about 15 to 50 percent per annual over the past fews years. Based on the IBISWorld report, Australian Online Shopping growth rate may achieve 10 to 15 percent in next three years.

Internet usage becomes affordable for households
Internet becomes is the one of the key to make sure that all trends will happen in future. The Internet has become a cost-efficient method for searching for goods. The Deloitte Access Economics 2011 estimated the low cost Internet will save Australian about 7 billiong AUD annually. The new 4G technology and National Broadband Network will provide all Australian access to high-speed affordable broadband service. (Affordable broadband access for Australians 2012). This reliable high-speed Internet access will generate a high proportion of Australians’ usage.

Mobile devices enable convenience of online shoppingThe convenience of Mobile devices may enhance the customers online shopping experience. Now, smart phone totally already changed the user experience about traditional mobiler phone user experience. The powerful mobile device allows customer to check the shopping information, set the order, and check the delivery status anywhere, anytime. Sperti (2012) claims that mobile devices will be preferred to access the Internet in the future. This will lead to Australian retailing changing in response to the increased competition arising from the popularity of online shopping.

Strong Australia Dollar
In the next 5 years the Australian Dollar is likely to keep its current position of above parity against the America Dollar. The Westpac Economics Reports states that the Australian economy will stay on track and remain stable in future. The report predicts that the Australian GDP will keep 3.5% increase trend in both 2012 and 2013 financial year. Although the Australian Reserve Bank did not raise interest rates from 2.75% to 3.5% as expectation during July, the Westpac still expected Australia dollar will keep a high position. The report stated the expected boost to bulk commodity prices will provided a modes (at least by recent standards) increase in the terms of trade of around 8%. In such an environment, the Australian dollar will remain comfortably above parity as Europe and the US seek to keep their currencies competitive.

Refer to the American economy. In the next 2 years; the American economy will continue to suffer slow growth. Market expectations of American GDP growth will hover around 2.5 % for the next two financial years. The American Federal Reserve have decided to release QE3, a third round of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy by providing an environment with continued low interest rates and low inflation rates. The American Federal Reserve will continue to keep low interest rates at between 0% to 0.25% until 2015.
Based on above expectations, the Australian dollar will remain at around parity against the American dollar in following two years.

Scenario identification

Scenario 1 – SHOPPING HEAVEN
Assumption (critical uncertainty) :
Australian Dollar to decrease below USD parity and local online (.com.au) shopping behaviour increases.

Story line: 
The shopping experience will be an enjoyable one. Customers will move from the transactional approach to shopping to forming relationships with retailers. Australian retailers will offer customers more choice via online platforms and exceptional in-store experience.

Final Outcome 
Customers will shop from local retailers via their brick and mortar and online (.com.au) stores.
Consequences
· Local retailers will introduce e-retailing option
· Local retailers will increase their online product range
· Government will introduce GST on imported online goods
· Customers will demand after sales service/customer care plan

Scenario 2 – BOXING DAY
Assumption:
Australian Dollar to increase above USD parity and international online shopping behaviour increases.

Story line:
Local retailers are battling to offer customers the lowest prices. Customers are crowded with product choice and price preferences via local retailers and international online stores. Company and Government pressure is existent within the Australian retail landscape.

Final Outcome
Customer’s international online shopping behaviour will put pressure on local retailers and the Australian Government.
Consequences
· Competition level among local retailers increases
· Local retailers will decrease product prices
· More mergers & acquisitions for local retailers
· Customers shop from online international suppliers
· Local retailers will pressure the Government to introduce GST on international purchase

Reference
ACMA 2011, Communications 2010-11 series Report 1 – Ecommerce marketplace in Australia: Online shopping, Australian Communications and Media Authority, Canberra, viewed 28 September 2012, <http://www.acma.gov.au/webwr/_assets/main/lib410148/cr_comp_report1-e-commerce_marketplace_in_australia.pdf>.

Fitzpatrick, N 2012, Telecommunication, Broadcasting and Transceiving Equipment Manufacturing in Australia, IBISWorld report no C2842, IBISWorld, viewed 25 October 2012, <http://clients.ibisworld.com.au/reports/reportdownload.aspx?cid=61&rtid=101&e=266&ft=pdf&beta=y>.
 
Kim, H-W, Xu, Y & Gupta, S 'Which is more important in Internet shopping, perceived price or trust?', Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 241-252

Mobile Payments Today 2012, Verizon's 4G helps 3-D kiosks personalize shopping experience, viewed 23 September 2012

Sivasailam, N 2012, Online Shopping in Australia, IBISWorld, X0004, viewed 22 September 2012